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Title: Mid-Season Estimation Of Annual Degree Days
Author: Paul F. Vogt
Source: American Gas Association 1983
Year Published: 1983
Abstract: This paper describes the method used at Public Service Electric and Gas Company to develop a probable range of the total degree days for the year based on the known degree day accumulation to date. This probability distribution is used in conjunction with a temperature history to estimate the annual degree days and to generate a daily temperature pattern for the remainder of the winter for any level of winter severity desired. The estimates and the temperature pattern assist in determining gas resources allocation strategy to meet the gas sendout. Though the method has shown the abiUty to provide a good estimate of the remaining winter severity by mid-December, its value is in providing planners with a rational evaluation of the probable range of severity for the remaining winter.

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