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Title: The Future For Supplemental Gas
Author: Charles A. Campbell
Source: American Gas Association 1985
Year Published: 1985
Abstract: To examine ihe future for supplements to natural gas produced in the United States (lower 48), the expected role of natural gas as one of the sources of energy to be used in the future economic structure of the United States must be defined first. The United States appears to have entered an era during which its economy is expected to grow modestly, say 2.5 to 3 percent p.a. real GNP, with continuing inflation, say 4 to 5 percent p.a. Accompanying this growth is a longterm trend toward more efficient use of energy in our overall economic system. The net result is a forecast for less growth in energy use, about I percent p.a., than in overall economic growth. There are also evident changes in the expected sources of primary energy to fuel this economic structure. The 15-fold price rise in the cost of crude oil in the 1970s spurred activity worldwide that increased the non-OPEC supply of oil, while also decreasing demand for oil, and stimulated a switch to other cheaper (and more secure) sources of energy. Crude oil prices have fallen from a peak of about 34 per barrel to about S25 per barrel, and the perception today is that crude oil prices will stabilize near this level in real (non inflated) terms over the next decade before rising moderately again. This crude oil price perception for the future helps to reinforce both the direction and strength of several trends concerning the quality and sources of energy that are expected to be used in the future:




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