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Title: Software Tools To Simplify The Application Of Probabilistic Uncertainty Methods Monte( Carlo Simulation)
Author: Martin Basil,Donald Sutherland
Source: 2002 International Symposium on Fluid Flow Measurement
Year Published: 2002
Abstract: The paper describes a software system that simplifies the propagation of uncertainty using the Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS) technique. This is used to model oil and gas measurement, processing and allocation systems to find the financial exposure of the allocation. These uncertainty methods are also well suited to recent proposals for Uncertainty Based Allocation (UBA). Fluid flow is invariably derived from a functional relationship between a number of measurements and this must be taken into account when analyzing flow measurement uncertainty. These complex relationships are often further compounded when the results are cascaded into another system such as a oil or gas pipeline allocation system. Determining the uncertainty of these systems is problematic with conventional Root Sum Square (RSS) uncertainty methods. The MCS uncertainty methods described here provide a reliable systematic method of determining allocation uncertainty.

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