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Title: Risk Analysis Approach To Planning Annual Gas Supplies
Author: Joseph A. Masino, Joseph J. Assenza
Source: American Gas Association 1977
Year Published: 1977
Abstract: Two main objectives in planning an adequate gas supply are 1.) to assure availability of daily capacity to meet daily load demands, and 2.) to assure sufficient annual supplies to provide for possible variations in annual sendouts. Reliability of service is a vital consideration in the economic planning of these supply systems. Reliability evaluation using probability methods is now the conventional practice for most North American electric utilities. Some may feel that the nature of the gas utility business is such that risk should not be taken and gas systems should be planned for 100% reliability. In the absence of infinite, low cost resources this is practically impossible. In todays environment one way that a high reliability of service can be maintained is to reduce the customer base to a size that can be provided service under all adverse demand levels. The optimum benefit to society however, may dictate that more customers be served at the cost of reduced reliability.




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