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Title: Risk Analysis In Distribution Design
Author: James W. Peters
Source: American Gas Association 1990
Year Published: 1990
Abstract: Cost control and service reliability are popular topics when strategic issues facing Local Distribution Companies (LDCs) in the QOs are under discussion. The ability to provide secure and uninterrupted gas service is crucial for growth and company image, both with the pubhc and regulatory agencies. At the same time, the industry is facing unprecedented competition from alternate fuels, and cost control is essential to maintain a competitive edge in the market. On the surface, it would appear that these issues are contradictory. Improvement in service reliabihty should cost something-or does it? Risk analysis can provide the answer especially from a distribution design perspective. From a distribution engineers perspective, projects such as loops, backfeeds, and even valve placement are designed to reduce, minimize, and/or eliminate potential customer outages. They improve service reliability by acting as backups should a failure occur on a component of the distribution network. These contingency projects are easy to cost out, but what about their benefits or true value. Their purpose is to maintain supply to an area of the distribution network in the event of a failure somewhere else. TVJO phrases stand out potential customer outages and in the event of a failure. They identify uncertainty.

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