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Title: Predicting Lealcs On Bare Steel Distribution Mains
Author: Allan R. Fraser
Source: American Gas Association 1983
Year Published: 1983
Abstract: There is a growing concern over the increasing number of corrosion leaks being reported by gas operators on their bare and unprotected wrapped steel systems. In an effort to attack this problem, many companies make repair versus replace versus protect decisions using leakage history either by rules of thumb or scoring systems. Unfortunately, they rely only on what has happened, not what will happen which results in non-optimal expenditures, both operating and capital, subjecting the public unnecessarily to potentially hazardous conditions, and opening themselves to poor customer relations. We have sectionalized our bare steel system into 350 maximum sections and identified the leakage history with each section. However, using a weighted least-square fit of the data and adding 0 leak years where appropriate, we have developed an approach to predicting future leaks on our bare and unprotected wrapped steel mains. By using certain parameters, we have found an acceptable compromise between the accuracy which was achieved and the number of main sections which were evaluated.


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